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How The Stock Market Contributes To Economic Growth - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 21 Words: 6305 Downloads: 7 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Statistics Essay Did you like this example? Introduction The debate of whether stock market is associated with economic growth or the stock market can be served as the economic indicator to predict future. According to many economists stock market can be a reason for the future recession if there is a huge decrease in the stock price or vice versa. However, there are evidence of controversial issue about the ability of prediction from the stock market is not reliable if there is a situation like 1987 stock market crashed followed by the economic recession and 1997 financial crises. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "How The Stock Market Contributes To Economic Growth" essay for you Create order (Stock market and economic growth in Malaysia: causality test). The aim of the study is to find the relation between the stock market performance and the real economic activity in case of four countries The UK, The USA, Malaysia and Japan. With my limited knowledge I have tried to find out the role of financial development in stimulating economic growth. A lot of economists have different view about stock market development and the economic growth. If we focus on some related literature published on this topic one question arises: Is economic development is affected by stock market development? Even though there are lots of debate on some are saying that stock market can help the economy but the effect of stock market in the economy especially in the economy is very little. Ross Levine suggested in his paper published in 1998 that recent evidence suggested stock market can really give a boom to economic growth. (REFERENCE) It is not really possible to measure the growth by simply looking at the ups and down in the stock market indicator and by looking at the rates of growth in GDP. A lot of things can cause in the growth of stock market like changes in the banking system, foreign participation in the in the financial market may participate strongly. Apparently it seems that these developments can cause development of stock market followed by the good economic growth. But to check the accuracy one required to follow an appropriate method which would meaningfully measure whether stock price is really effecting the economic growth or not? In my work I have tried to find out the co integrating relationship between Stock price and GDP and tried to check if there is a long run and short run relationship between the stock price and GDP. The method used for the studies is Engle Granger co integration method. To do this I have used ADF (Augmented Dickey Fuller Test) to check for the stationary behaviour of the variables and then I have performed the Engle Granger Engle Granger co integration method followed by residual based error correction model. To check for the short run relationship I have used 2nd stage Engle Granger co integration method. To check the causal effect of the four countries stock market and economic growth I used Granger Causality Method. In this paper I have reviewed some studies of scholars which I have discussed on the literature review part. This paper contains five parts Part two is about the literature based on the past wok of scholars. Part Three discussed about the Data. Part four is about the methodology, Results are discussed on part five and part six is all about the summary and conclusion of the whole study. In my work I have founded there is no long run relationship between stock market and economic growth in all four countries. In addition there is no causal relation between stock index yield and the national economy growth rate. The empirical results of the thesis concludes that the possibility of seemingly abnormal relationship between the stock index and national economy of these for countries. Literature Review: Stock market contributes to economic growth in different ways either directly or indirectly. The functions of stock market are savings mobilization, Liquidity creation, and Risk diversification, keep control on disintermediation, information gaining and enhanced incentive for corporate control. The relationship between stock market and economic growth has become an issue of extensive analysis. There is always a question whether the stock market directly influence economic growth. A lot of research and results shows that there is a strong relationship between stock market and economic growth. Evidence on whether financial development causes growth help to reconcile these views. If we go back to the study of Schumpeter (1912) his studies emphasizes the positive influence on the development of a countrys financial sector on the level and the potential risk of losses caused by the adverse selection and moral hazard or transaction costs are argued by him how necessary the rate of growth argues that financial sectors provides of reallocating capital to minimize the potential losses. Empirical evidence from king and Levine (1983) show that the level of financial intermediation is good predictor of long run rates of growth, capital accumulation and productivity. Enhanced liquidity of financial market leads to financial development and investors can easily diversify their risk by creating their portfolio in different investments with higher investment. Demiurgic and Maksimovic (1996) have found positive causal effects of financial development on economic growth in line with the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‹Å"supply leading hypothesis. According to his studies countries with better financial system has a smooth functioning stock market tend to grow much faster as they have access to much needed funds for financially constrained economic enterprises by the large efficient banks. Related research was done for the past three decades focusing on the role of financial development in stimulating economic growth they never considered about the stock market. An empirical study by Ming Men and Rui on Stock market index and economic growth in China suggest that possible reason of apparent abnormal relationship between the stock Index and national economy in china. Apparent abnormal relationship may be because of the following reason inconsistency of Chinese GDP with the structure of its stock market, role played by private sector in growth of GDP and disequilibrium of finance structure etc. The study was done using the cointegration method and Granger causality test, the overall finding of the study is Chinese finance market is not playing an important role in economic development. (Men M 2006 China paper). An article by Indrani Chakraborti based on the case of India presented in a seminar in kolkata in October, 2006 provides some information about the existence of long run stable relationship between stosk market capitalization, bank credit and growth rate of real GDP. She used the concept of the granger causality after using both the Engle-Granger and Johansen technique. In her study she found GDP is co-integrated with financial depth, Volatility in the stock market and GDP growth is co integrated with all the findings the paper explain that the in an overall sense, economic growth is the reson for financial development in India.(Chakraboty Indrani). Few writers from Malaysia found that stock market does help to predict future economy. Stock market is associated with economic growth play as a source for new private capital. Causal relationship between the stock market and economic growth which was done by using the formal test for causality by C.J. Granger and yearly Malaysia data for the period 1977-2006. The result from the study explain that future prediction is possible by stock market. A study focused on the relationship between stock market performance and real economic activity in Turkey. The study shows existence of a long run relationship between real economic activity and stock pricesà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ Result from the study pointed out that economic activity increases after a shock in stock prices and then declines in Turkish market from the second quarter and a unitary (Turkish paper) An international time series analysis from 1980-1990 by By RAGHURAM G. RAJAN AND LUIGI ZINGALES shows some evidence of the relation between stock market and economic growth. This paper describes whether economic growth is facilitated by financial development. He found that financial development has strong effect on economic growth. (Rajan and Zingales, 1998) The study of Ross LEVINE AND SARA ZERVOS on finding out the long run relationship between stock market and bank suggest a positive effect both the variables has positive effect on economic growth. International integration and volatility is not properly effected by capital stock market. And private save saving rates are not at all affected by these financial indicators. (Levine and Zervos 1998) Belgium Stock market study with economic development shows the positive long run relationship between both the variables. In case of Belgium the evidences are quiet strong that Economic growth is caused by the development of the stock market. It is more focused between the period 1873 and 1935, basically this period is considered as the period of rapid industrialization in Belgium. The importance of the stock market in Belgium is more pronounced after liberalization of the stock market in 1867-1873. The time varying nature of the link between stock market development and economic growth is explained by the institutional change in the stock exchange. They also tried to find out the relationship to the universal banking system. Before 1873 the economic growth was based on the banking system and after 1873 stock market took the place. (Stock Market Development and economic growth in Belgium, Stijin Van Nieuwerburg, Ludo Cuyvers, Frans Buelens July 5, 2005) Senior economist of the World Banks Policy research department Ross Levine has discussed about Stock market in his paper Stock Markets: A Spur to economic growth on the impact of development. Less risky investments are possible in liquid equity market and it attracts the savers to acquire an asset, equity. As they can sell it quickly when they need access to their savings, and if they want to alter their portfolio. Though many long term investment is required for the profitable investment. But reluctance of the investors towards long term investment as they dont have the access to their savings easily. Permanent access to capital is raised by the companies through equity issues as they are facilitating longer term, more profitable investments and prospect of long term economic growth is enhanced as liquid market improves the allocation of capital. The empirical evidence from the study strongly suggests that greater stock markets create more liquidity or at least continue economic gro wth. (Levine. R A spur to economic Growth) Another paper was focused on the linkages between financial development and economic growth using TYDL model for the empirical exercises by Purna Chandra Padhan suggests that both stock price and economic activity are integrated of order one and Johansen-Juselias Coin-integration tests for this study found one co integrating vector exists. It is proved by the spurious relation rule in this study the existence of at least one direction of causality. He described that bi-directional causality between stock price and economic growth meaning that economic activity can be enhanced by well developed stock exchange and vice-versa. ( Title:  The nexus between stock market and economic activity: an empirical analysis for India Author(s): Purna Chandra Padhan Journal: International Journal of Social Economics Year: 2007 Volume: 34 Issue: 10  Page: 741 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" 753 DOI: 10.1108/03068290710816874 Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing Limited) Chee Keong Choong (Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman Malaysia) Zulkornain Yusop (Universiti Putra Malaysia) Siong Hook Law (Universiti Putra Malaysia) Venus Liew Khim Sen (Universiti Putra Malaysia) Date of creation: 23 Jul 2003 tried to find out the importance of the causal relationship of Financial development and economic growth. The findings of their study usin autoregressive Distributed lag (ARDL) describes about the positive long run impact on economic growth Granger causality also suggest same results. However, another study on Iran by N. Shahnoushi, A.G Daneshvar, E Shori and M. Motalebi 2008 Financial development is not considered as an effective factor to the economic growth. The study was focused on the causal relationship between the financial development and economic growth. Time series data used for the study from the period 1961-2004. Granger causality shows there is no co integrating relationship between financial development and economic growth in Iran only the economical growth leads to financial development. Establishing link between savings and investment is very much important and financial market provides that. Transient or lasting growth is the ultimate affect of the financial market. Economic growth can be influenced by financial market by improving the productivity of the capital, Investment to firms can be channelled and greater capital accumulation by increasing savings. To ensure the stability of the financial market potential regulation is important due to asymmetric information, especially at the time of financial liberalization. (Economic Development and Financial Market Tosson Nabil Deabes Moderm Academy for technology aand computer sciences; MAM November 2004 Economic Development Financial Market Working Paper No. 2 ) Data: The empirical analysis was carried out using the quarterly data for The UK, The USA, Japan and Malaysia. The data were collected from the DataStream for the period 1993I to 2008III. Economic growth is measured as the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) of each country with the help of stock prices SP. For the software processing I used Eviews 6.0 for the planned regression in order to get the results. The empirical analysis is done from the quarterly data from the stock market indices and the and the GDP between the first quarter of 1993 and the fourth quarter of 2008. All the data has been extracted from the data stream and expressed in US$. The data for Japan share price is from Tokyo Stock Exchange. Malaysias Share price is form Kuala Lumpur Composite Index, UKs is from UK FT all share price index and USA share price is taken from the DOW Jones industrial share price index. The nature of the Data is series used for the time series regression. List of Variables: UGDP UK GDP USP UK Share price LUGDP Log of UK GDP LUSP Log of UK Share price USGDP USA GDP USSP USA (DOW Jones) Share price LUSGDP Log of USA GDP LUSSP Log of USA Share price MGDP Malaysia GDP MSP Malaysia Share price LMGDP Log of Malaysia GDP LMSP Log of Malaysia Share price JGDP Japan GDP JSP Japan Share Price LJGDP Log of Japan GDP LJSP Log of Japan Share price Methodology: Engle and Granger (1987) first established the cointegration method. It is a method of measuring long term diversification based on data. Linear combination of two non stationary series shows that they are integrated in order one I(1) that is stationary. And this is a co integrated series. Cointegration Long term common random trend between non stationary time series. The linear combination of both the nonstationary series can be stationary if both the variables are integrated in same order. Cointegration is a very powerful approach in the long term analysis because a common stochastic trend is shared in cointegration that mean two series will not drift separately too much. They might deviate from each other but in the long run but eventually the will revert back in the long run. If there is very low correlation between the series still the series can be co-integrated as high correlation is not implied in cointegration. The reason for choosing the method as it will allow us to check the move between the variable in the long run even there might be a divergence in the short run. The first step in the analysis is check each index series whether the series for the presence of unit root which shows whether the series is non stationary. The method that I followed to do this is Augmented Dickey Fuller Test (ADF). I proceed the Granger cointegration technique 1987 when the stationary requirements are met. Cointegration long term common stochastic trend between nonstationary time series. If non-stationary series x and yare both integrated of same order and there is a linear combination of them that is stationary, they are called cointegrated series. A common stochastic trend is shared in Cointegration. It follows that these two series will not drift apart too much, meaning that even they may deviate from each other in the short-term, they will revert to the long-run equilibrium. This fact makes cointegration a very powerful approach for the long-term analyses. Meanwhile, cointegration does not imply high correlation; two series can be co integrated and yet have very low correlations. Cointegration tests allow us to determine whether financial variables of different national markets move together over the long run, while providing for the possibility of short-run divergence. The first step in the analysis is to test each index series for the presence of unit roots, which shows whether the series are nonstationary. All the series must be nonstationarity and integrated of the same order. To do this, we apply both the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Once the stationarity requirements are met, we proceed Granger bivariate cointegration (1987) procedure. 30 International Research Journal of Finance and Economics Issue 24 (2009) Series Stationary Test: In this study I have used Augmented Dickey Fuller Test (ADF) to test the stationarity of variables. ADF is test for unit root where I have checked the Unit root and strong negative numbers of unit root is being rejected by the null hypothesis (level of significance). The following regression for the unit root test in Eviews: Is the white noise error tem. Is the difference operator. , () () Here with the test we can find the estimates of are equal to zero or not. Y is said to be stationary if the cumulative distribution of the ADF statistics by showing that if the calculated ratio of the coefficient is less than the critical value according to Fuller (1976). If we accept the Ho the sequence is predicted to be having unit root and if Ho is rejected then we can say that the series doesnt have unit root. This proves that the series is stationary. The co à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å"integration test can only be performed if both the sequences are all integrated of order I (1). Cointegration Test: According to Engle and Granger (1987) to check for cointegration if both the variables and are integrated with order one the proposed method for cointegration residual-based test for cointegration (Engle-Granger method). So from the above method we can find the equation By regressing with And after that and is denoted as the estimated regression coefficient vectors. Then, = à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" is representing the estimated residual vector. If the residual is itegrated with zero that means the series for the residual is stationary, and and are then co integrated. An in this situation (1, -) is called co-integrating vector. Therefore is a co integrating equation, so, from it we can say that there is long run relationship between and. Granger causality test: Granger causality test is applied if the relationship is lagged between the two variables to determine the direction of relation in statistical term. It gives information about the short term relationship between the variables. In terms of conceptual definition causality is consist of different ideas, this concept produce a relation between caused and results were agreed upon. Aristo defines that there exist a link between causes and results and without causes these results are impossible. And this strong relationship. Some economists believe that the idea of causality is the mix of both theoretical and explanation and statistical concept. The frontline operational definition of causality is given by some economist, but Granger is the one who provided the information to understand it correctly and completely. Granger s operational causality definition depends of below hypotheses, Next cannot be the reason of past. 1. Next cannot be reason of past. Certain causality is possible only with past causes present time or future time. Cause is always to be come true before the result. In addition, this makes time lagged between causes and results. 2. Causality can be determined only stochastic process. It is not possible to determine the causality between two deterministic processes. After 1990s, Granger and Engle contributed to time series literature importantly. On these developments about time series analysis, some variations were done with Granger Causality test. According to this, possible long-term relationship would be tested and if 20 variables were co-integrated, long-term regression error equation s lagged value would be included in Granger Error Correction model as error correction term. Thus, Granger Causality test should be applied. If there is no co-integration between the variables, it can be continued with Granger Causality Test without including error correction terms. If there is a co-integration between the variables, Granger Causality Test will be failed and it will be certainly necessary to be included error correction term into the models. Granger Causality Test, which depends on time series data, is made by the estimation of the equations below with Least Squares Method (LSM). Xt = + j t j X + i t i Y + Ut Yt = + j t j Y + j t j X + Ut In Granger Causality test, there are three possible situations that one directional causality from x to y or y to x, opposite direction between x and y or one affect to other and independency of x and y each other. This situation changes according to chosen of null hypothesis and lagged values randomly in equations above whose parameters are whether equal to zero or not. According to researches, randomly choice makes causality incline to deviations importantly. To understand this test clearly it can be talked about below equation; t (LNGDP) = 0 + t inii (LNGDP)1+ t I nii (LND1)1+ Ut To apply Granger Causality test under null hypothesis, which illustrates coefficients of financial deepening variables (LND1) are meaningful (equal to zero) and then F-statistics can be calculated. If null hypothesis is not rejected then it is possible to say that Granger causality test accepts that financial deepening causes economic growth. The direction can be either negative or positive (Granger and Engle, 1987). Indicators of the economic growth and the financial deepening are variables, which are used for Granger Causality test. Moreover, this test can determine the effects of one variable on the other. Test result for Unit Root: Augmented Dickey Fuller Model (ADF) is used to test the stationary of each variable. Null and alternative hypothesis describes about the investigation of unit root. If the null is accepted and alternative is rejected then the variable non stationary behaviour and vice versa is stationary. Form the result of Augmented Dickey Fuller test of the four countries variables (Log GDP and Log Share price) shows that the entire variable has unit root at level which proves that the series is not stationary. However, the result from the first difference shows the significance at 1%, 5% and 10% critical value and found to be stationary behaviour. Therefore, it suggests that all the variables are integrated of order one. Variables level/1st Difference    Augmented Dickey Fuller Statistic(ADF) test Japan    Conclusion t statistic value With Trend t statistic value With trend and Intercept 1% 5% 10% 1% 5% 10% GDP Level -2.653258 -3.522887     -2.901779 -2.588280   -2.693600   -4.088713   -3.472558 -3.163450    1st Difference -9.053185 -3.524233   -2.902358 -2.588587 -9.003482   -4.090602   -3.473447 -3.163967    Share Price Level   -2.116137 -3.522887     -2.901779 -2.588280   -2.203273   -4.088713   -3.472558 -3.163450    1st Difference   -6.899295 -3.524233   -2.902358 -2.588587   -6.844396   -4.090602   -3.473447 -3.163967    Table 01: Unit root test for stationary Japan If we have a look on the unit root test for the variables GDP and Share price to find out the stationary behaviour the Augmented Dickey Fuller Test with intercept and with intercept and trend in level and first difference. The t statistic value with trend is -2.653258 which is higher than the critical values in 1%, 5% and 10% critical value. The same applies with intercept and trend as the t statistic value -2.693600 is higher than the critical value in all the level of critical value. So from the nature of stationary behaviour we can say in level GDP shows nonstationary behaviour. And the first difference LnGDP is integrated with order one. In case of LnSP the results with intercept and with intercept trend in level are -2.116137 and -2.203273 which is higher than the critical values shows non stationary behaviour as they are higher than the critical value. The unit root test for the variables at first difference shows stationary as the t statistic value is than the critical value i n all level and they are integrated in order one. Variables level/1st Difference    Augmented Dickey Fuller Statistic(ADF) test Malaysia    Conclusion t statistic value With Trend t statistic value With trend and Intercept 1% 5% 10% 1% 5% 10% GDP Level -1.195020 -3.522887     -2.901779 -2.588280 -1.933335   -4.088713   -3.472558 -3.163450    1st Difference -5.951843 -3.524233   -2.902358 -2.588587 -5.923595   -4.090602   -3.473447 -3.163967    Share Price Level   -1.900406 -3.522887     -2.901779 -2.588280   -1.891183   -4.088713   -3.472558 -3.163450    1st Difference   -7.842122 -3.524233   -2.902358 -2.588587   -7.779757   -4.090602   -3.473447 -3.163967    The unit root test result for LMGDP and LMSP values presented in natural logarithm. And the level values with intercept and with intercept and trend for LMGDP is -1.195020 and -1.93335 respectively. The values are higher than the critical value means the series has non stationary behaviour. On the other hand the 1st difference values with intercept and with intercept and trend are -5.951843 and -5.923595 respectively. The 1st difference values are integrated with order one. And in the same way I did the ADF test to check for Stationary behaviour of LMSP in level and first difference with intercept and trend. The values in level are -1.900406 and -1.891183 with intercept and trend us higher than the critical value and the series is not integrated with order one. The first difference t statistic values are -7.842122 and -7.779757 with intercept and with intercept and trend respectively are less than the critical value in both the case implies that the series is integrated with order on e. Variables level/1st Difference    Augmented Dickey Fuller Statistic(ADF) test UK    Conclusion t statistic value With Trend t statistic value With trend and Intercept 1% 5% 10% 1% 5% 10% GDP Level -0.690866 -3.522887     -2.901779 -2.588280 -2.377333   -4.088713   -3.472558 -3.163450    1st Difference -7.474388 -3.524233   -2.902358 -2.588587 -7.439027   -4.090602   -3.473447 -3.163967    Share Price Level -1.711599 -3.522887     -2.901779 -2.588280 -1.261546   -4.088713   -3.472558 -3.163450    1st Difference -7.254574 -3.524233   -2.902358 -2.588587 -7.391821   -4.090602   -3.473447 -3.163967    The results from Augmented Dickey Fuller test (ADF) for UK GDP in level with intercept and with intercept and trend is à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å"0.690866 and -2.377333 respectively. Both the values in level are higher than the critical value and are integrated in order 0 shows non stationary behaviour. The t statistic values in 1st difference with intercept and with intercept and trend are -7.474388 and -7.439207 respectively. Which suggest that the critical values are less than the critical values in 1%, 5% and 10% level. So from the above hypothesis it can be said that it series is integrated with order one. When I performed the unit root test using the same method the series in level with intercept and with intercept and trend the values in are -1.711599 and -1.261546 respectively. The values are higher than the critical values implies that they are not integrated in order one shows non stationary behaviour. However, the 1st difference value of log natural share price is -7.254573 and -7. 391821 with intercept and with intercept and trend respectively. So from the result we can say that the series is integrated in order one in both the cases with intercept and with intercept and trend. So the series in first difference is stationary. Variables level/1st Difference    Augmented Dickey Fuller Statistic(ADF) test USA    Conclusion t statistic value With Trend t statistic value With trend and Intercept 1% 5% 10% 1% 5% 10% GDP Level -3.244801 -3.522887     -2.901779 -2.588280   2.866507   -4.088713   -3.472558 -3.163450    1st Difference -5.010864 -3.524233   -2.902358 -2.588587 -5.010864   -4.090602   -3.473447 -3.163967    Share Price Level -2.074732 -3.522887     -2.901779 -2.588280 -0.359637   -4.088713   -3.472558 -3.163450    1st Difference -8.181234 -3.524233   -2.902358 -2.588587 -8.735399   -4.090602   -3.473447 -3.163967    Augmented Dickey Fuller Statistic in case of the variable of USA LUSSP and LUGDP I have used the same method using intercept and intercept and trend in level and first difference. The level t statistic value for LUSGDP is -3.244801 and -2.866507 respectively with intercept and with intercept and trend. The result for USA is same as the other country which is higher than the critical values. Proves that the series is not integrated with order one and is nonstationary. Whereas the first difference t statistic value for LUSGDP is less than the critical value. The t statistic value LUSGDP with intercept is -5.010864 and -5.010864 with intercept and trend. In this case both the values are lesser than the critical value implies that the series is integrated with order one in first difference. While taking the values in level and 1st difference in case of LUSSP the tstatistic value in level are -2.074732 and -0.359637 in level respectively with intercept and wit intercept and trend. Still t he series is showing the same nature in level as they are higher than the critical values and the series is not integrated in order 0. The first difference value for LUSSP series with trend and with trend and intercept is -8.181234 and -8.735399 respectively which is less than the critical value implies the series is integrated with order one. Co integration Test: Two step procedure of Engle-Granger cointegration is to check for the long run relationship between the variables. The first stage was run by using traditional OLS method. To do this we need to check whether the series is stationary or not. Which we have checked before by doing ADF test on each series. where the result shows that the series is integrated with order (1). Engle-Granger representation theorem that might have an error correction mechanism is the series is integrated. In this case the long run OLS model is as follows in case of Japan: LJGDP = 7.97824432568 + 0.163668097988*LJSP Dependent Variable: LJGDP Method: Least Squares Date: 12/17/09 Time: 20:30 Sample: 1991Q1 2009Q2 Included observations: 74    Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 7.978244 0.120791 66.04995 0 LJSP 0.163668 0.048847 3.350602 0.0013 R-squared 0.134891 Mean dependent var    8.381114 Adjusted R-squared 0.122876 S.D. dependent var    0.10605 S.E. of regression 0.099321 Akaike info criterion    -1.75426 Sum squared resid 0.710261 Schwarz criterion    -1.69199 Log likelihood 66.90753 Hannan-Quinn criter.    -1.72942 F-statistic 11.22653 Durbin-Watson stat    0.310636 Prob(F-statistic) 0.001287          From the above model I have saved the residual series and performed ADF test with trend and without trend and the values are as follows in the table: Unit Root test for residual Series saved residual RJP T statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level   With intercept   -2.831807 -3.522887   -2.901779   -2.588280   With intercept and trend             From the above table we can see that the result is significant only in 10% level. Which suggest that there might be a long run relationship between the variables. But there is no long run relationship at 1% and 5% significant level as both the values are higher than the critical value. 2nd stage regression result: LJGDP = 7.96681067902 + 0.170453164194*LJSP + 0.819211725701*RJP(-1) Dependent Variable: LJGDP Method: Least Squares Date: 12/31/09 Time: 18:51 Sample (adjusted): 1991Q2 2009Q2 Included observations: 73 after adjustments    Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.                C 7.966811 0.064529 123.4601 0 LJSP 0.170453 0.026119 6.525992 0 RJP(-1) 0.819212 0.064206 12.75915 0                R-squared 0.747462 Mean dependent var    8.384005 Adjusted R-squared 0.740246 S.D. dependent var    0.103806 S.E. of regression 0.052906 Akaike info criterion    -3.00038 Sum squared resid 0.195932 Schwarz criterion    -2.90625 Log likelihood 112.5137 Hannan-Quinn criter.    -2.96286 F-statistic 103.5928 Durbin-Watson stat    1.958683 Prob(F-statistic) 0          2nd stage regression suggest that there is short run relationship between stock market and economic growth. As from the table values after running the regression with the help of one intercept and lagged value of the residual save from the first stage regression. Here we can see that the all the coefficient has positive values and r-sruared (0.747462) is less than the Durbin-Watson value(1.958683). so form the results we can see that there exists a short run relationship between stock market and economic growth. Malaysia Following the same stages on Malaysia, by running the regression on OLS to check the long run relationship between stock market and economic growth in Malasia. The equation to check the first stage regression is: LMGDP = 8.2331829641 + 0.340689829517*LMSP The result from the above regression are described in the following table: Dependent Variable: LMGDP Method: Least Squares Date: 12/17/09 Time: 21:00 Sample: 1991Q1 2009Q2 Included observations: 74    Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 8.233183 0.644484 12.77484 0 LMSP 0.34069 0.116332 2.928597 0.0046 R-squared 0.106441 Mean dependent var    10.11598 Adjusted R-squared 0.094031 S.D. dependent var    0.407894 S.E. of regression 0.388243 Akaike info criterion    0.972285 Sum squared resid 10.85275 Schwarz criterion    1.034557 Log likelihood -33.97453 Hannan-Quinn criter.    0.997126 F-statistic 8.576678 Durbin-Watson stat    0.054361 Prob(F-statistic) 0.004557          Unit Root test for residual Series T statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level   With intercept   -1.301997 -3.522887   -2.901779   -2.588280   With intercept and trend             From the above regression and after saving the residual I performed and ADF test with trend and without trend on the residual series. Here the result suggests that the t statistic value is higher than the critical values of 1%, 5% and 10% level. Which suggest that residual series is non stationary and there is no relationship between the variables in long run. The estimated equation in error correction model is as follows: LMGDP = 8.13761928798 + 0.360964712114*LMSP + 0.965225800038*R(-1) Dependent Variable: LMGDP Method: Least Squares Date: 01/01/10 Time: 23:15 Sample (adjusted): 1991Q2 2009Q2 Included observations: 73 after adjustments    Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 8.137619 0.147701 55.09505 0 LMSP 0.360965 0.02665 13.54478 0 R(-1) 0.965226 0.027335 35.31042 0                R-squared 0.952382 Mean dependent var    10.12619 Adjusted R-squared 0.951022 S.D. dependent var    0.401091 S.E. of regression 0.088766 Akaike info criterion    -1.96541 Sum squared resid 0.551553 Schwarz criterion    -1.87128 Log likelihood 74.7374 Hannan-Quinn criter.    -1.9279 F-statistic 700.0218 Durbin-Watson stat    2.075716 Prob(F-statistic) 0          2nd stage results are suggesting about the short run relationship between the variables. As we can see from the is less than the Durbin-Watson Statistic. So from the result we can say that there exist a co-integrating relationship between stock market and economic growth in short run. UK Considering the case of UK to find out the relationship both in long and short run I used the same procedure to find out the relationship. As all the variables are integrated with order one which suggests the variables are stationary. Now by applying the Engle Granger cointegration method to estimate the co integrating vector in OLS and then examining the residual series. Cointegration for the long run depends on the residual series. Here I defined the residual series a RUK for the variables LUGDP (log of UK GDP) and LUSP(log of UK share price). If we look at the table of the unit root test for the residual series of the Co-integrating regression of LUGDP and LUSP the residual series RUK is -1.355485 with intercept and   -2.426938 with intercept and trend. Where both the result for unit root test by applying Augmented Dickey Fuller test suggests that the residual series has a nonstationary behaviour in both the case with intercept and with intercept and trend. As the critical value for at 1%, 5% and 10% is -3.522887, -3.522887 and -2.588280 respectively with intercept and -4.088713, -3.472558 and -3.163450with intercept and trend. As the t statistic value is higher than the critical values in both the case, so from the result we can say that the residual series in non stationary and there is no long run relationship between the variable. Dependent Variable: LUGDP Method: Least Squares Date: 12/17/09 Time: 21:10 Sample: 1991Q1 2009Q2 Included observations: 74    Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.                C 6.41427 0.52629 12.18771 0 LUSP 0.790239 0.064275 12.29475 0 R-squared 0.677363 Mean dependent var    12.87916 Adjusted R-squared 0.672882 S.D. dependent var    0.332711 S.E. of regression 0.190291 Akaike info criterion    -0.45386 Sum squared resid 2.607181 Schwarz criterion    -0.39159 Log likelihood 18.79298 Hannan-Quinn criter.    -0.42902 F-statistic 151.1608 Durbin-Watson stat    0.149084 Prob(F-statistic) 0          Unit Root test for residual Series residual saved T statistic Test critical values: RUK    1% level 5% level 10% level   With Intercept   -1.355485 -3.522887   -2.901779   -2.588280   With intercept and trend   -2.426938 -4.088713 -3.472558 -3.16345 2nd stage Dependent Variable: LUGDP Method: Least Squares Date: 01/04/10 Time: 17:57 Sample (adjusted): 1991Q2 2009Q2 Included observations: 73 after adjustments                   Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.                C 6.375942 0.207063 30.79235 0 LUSP 0.795176 0.025265 31.47291 0 RUK(-1) 0.937553 0.046342 20.23103 0 R-squared 0.952647 Mean dependent var    12.88329 Adjusted R-squared 0.951294 S.D. dependent var    0.333094 S.E. of regression 0.073512 Akaike info criterion    -2.3425 Sum squared resid 0.378285 Schwarz criterion    -2.24837 Log likelihood 88.50121 Hannan-Quinn criter.    -2.30499 F-statistic 704.1223 Durbin-Watson stat    2.248029 Prob(F-statistic) 0          USA In case of USA to find out the relationship between stock market and economic growth using Engle Granger cointegration method we find the following results. LUSGDP = 6.422388123 + 0.32041281224*LUSSP Dependent Variable: LUSGDP Method: Least Squares Date: 12/31/09 Time: 02:02 Sample: 1991Q1 2009Q2 Included observations: 74    Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.                C 6.422388 0.140166 45.82 0 LUSSP 0.320413 0.015722 20.38041 0 R-squared 0.852266 Mean dependent var    9.274948 Adjusted R-squared 0.850214 S.D. dependent var    0.166293 S.E. of regression 0.064359 Akaike info criterion    -2.62203 Sum squared resid 0.29823 Schwarz criterion    -2.55975 Log likelihood 99.01496 Hannan-Quinn criter.    -2.59719 F-statistic 415.3609 Durbin-Watson stat    0.124101 Prob(F-statistic) 0          Unit Root test for residual Series Residual saved RUS T statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level With intercept -0.638033 -3.522887 -2.901779 -2.588280 With intercept and trend -1.430799 -4.088713 -3.472558 -3.163450 After saving the residuals from the 1st stage regression RUS I did the ADF test on it where we can see the t statistic value is literally higher than the 1%, 5% and 10% critical value in both the cases with intercept and with intercept and trend. As we can see the critical values are -3.552287, -2.901779 and -2.588280 with intercept, -1.430799, -3.472558 and -3.163450 in 1%, 5% and 10% level respectively. So the possibility for having long run relationship between GDP and stock price doesnt exist in case of USA. 2nd stage regression: Dependent Variable: LUSGDP Method: Least Squares Date: 01/05/10 Time: 21:36 Sample (adjusted): 1991Q2 2009Q2 Included observations: 73 after adjustments                   Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 6.400276 0.051084 125.29 0 LUSSP 0.323107 0.005722 56.46591 0 RUS(-1) 0.972896 0.043361 22.43708 0 R-squared 0.981148 Mean dependent var    9.278975 Adjusted R-squared 0.980609 S.D. dependent var    0.163769 S.E. of regression 0.022805 Akaike info criterion    -4.683433 Sum squared resid 0.036405 Schwarz criterion    -4.589305 Log likelihood 173.9453 Hannan-Quinn criter.    -4.645922 F-statistic 1821.53 Durbin-Watson stat    2.153933 Prob(F-statistic) 0          Granger Causality test: Pair wise Granger Causality Tests Date: 01/05/10 Time: 22:03 Sample: 1991Q1 2009Q2 Lags: 3 Null Hypothesis: Observation F-Statistic Prob. LJSP does not Granger Cause LJGDP 71 1.46842 0.2315 LJGDP does not Granger Cause LJSP    0.7659 0.5173 After performing the causality tests on the series DLJGDP and DLJSP with lag 3 according to the causality table to reject the null hypothesis that GDP does not granger cause LJSP. No causal relationship exists between share price and GDP in Japan. Pair wise Granger Causality Tests Date: 01/05/10 Time: 22:18 Sample: 1991Q1 2009Q2 Lags: 3 Null Hypothesis: Observations F-Statistic Prob. LMSP does not Granger Cause LMGDP 71 14.8418 0.0000002 LMGDP does not Granger Cause LMSP    0.65292 0.584 We can see the same result when we performed the causality test LMGDP and LMSP. Here we cannot reject the null which shows that there is no causal relationship between stock price and GDP. Pair wise Granger Causality Tests Date: 01/05/10 Time: 22:22 Sample: 1991Q1 2009Q2 Lags: 3 Null Hypothesis: Observations F-Statistic Prob. LUSP does not Granger Cause LUGDP 71 4.17743 0.0092 LUGDP does not Granger Cause LUSP 0.58556 0.6267 Pair wise Granger Causality Tests Date: 01/05/10 Time: 22:24 Sample: 1991Q1 2009Q2 Lags: 3 Null Hypothesis: Observations F-Statistic Prob. LUSSP does not Granger Cause LUSGDP 71 2.50276 0.0671 LUSGDP does not Granger Cause LUSSP 0.51256 0.6751 Analysis of the result:

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Browns Fall Essay - 1998 Words

The setting of a work can be the most powerful literary devices an author uses in their work. Setting refers to a location or time in which a work is set. Setting has a wide range of possibilities. The setting of a work may be as simple as a single room or may be as complex as the author or characters psychological state of mind. Authors can use setting to enhance the theme of their works. One author in particular is Nathaniel Hawthorne. Nathaniel Hawthorne wrote â€Å"Young Goodman Brown† in 1835. His time period influenced the theme of his work. The theme Hawthorne chose was the weakness of public morality. In â€Å"Young Goodman Brown† Hawthorne shows this theme through the perspective of a Puritan man, Goodman Brown. In the story Hawthorne†¦show more content†¦William served as a colonial legislator and a major in the Salem militia. Despite Williams better deeds he is better known for his suppression of heretics, who also inhabited the land. During one tria l Hathorne had ordered a burglars ear to be cut off and have his forehead branded with the letter B. Williams son John had followed his fathers footsteps, he also became a judge. Nathaniel’s great-grandfather Johns actions as a judge influenced the writing of â€Å"Young Goodman Brown†. In 1691, Salem had seen hard times. The town had gone through a brutal winter, an outbreak of smallpox, and heavy taxes from the British. The townsfolks only explanation at the time was the devil. The bible had warned the puritan peoples of the devils evil ways, and the humans that serve him, witches. In 1692 the people of Salem had convinced themselves that witchcraft was invading the town. The people believed witchcraft was the cause for their economic and spiritual troubles. Many innocent townspeople were being accused of being witches and were brought before John Hathorne in court. These trials were later named the Salem Witch Trials. 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Wednesday, May 6, 2020

The Approach Of Systems Thinking Commerce Essay Free Essays

string(58) " more about what really governs people ‘s behavior\." Over this century the attack of Systems Thinking has gained increasing attending in assorted social spheres, such as civilization, scientific discipline, general and human ecology, faith and economic sciences A ; direction. System Thinking has taught us that it is non about faulting other people but to work together to happen a solution and to accomplish that there must be a good relationship, connectivity and interconnectivity. For any system to work efficaciously it is recommended that all parts be present and functional and must be connected to a proper manner. We will write a custom essay sample on The Approach Of Systems Thinking Commerce Essay or any similar topic only for you Order Now System believing in an Organisation chiefly depends on accomplishing negative information through openness and feedback, system believing besides plays a major function in administrations and aid to acquire rid of disfucntional administration, Successful organisations develop features and execute procedures that allow them to accommodate to restraints, menaces, and chances. For any administration grow and better that administration must so go larning administration and for it to work efficaciously there should be an effectual leading which will convey effectual alteration and originative thoughts to the administration. Learning organisation deter the outlook that it is merely senior direction who can and make all the thought for the full corporation and it hence encourages everyone ‘s thoughts are valued and amount that people can lend and it is non determined by place in the organisation. 2.1 Quiz 1 The embedding procedure, The following scenario has been experienced from my company. This typical illustration is used to suit the ‘Why ‘ Question in the hereafter. Buying a Generator Transformer for Majuba Unit 1 Why Generator Transformer? Can transport high Voltage and high Amperes Can defy higher Temperatures. Can defy lower Temperatures Can be used out-of-doorss and Indoors Using natural air and oil for chilling Can step up or down the Voltage Excessively dearly-won Available on shelves Why non Unit transformer? Carries less Voltage and Amperes Easily acquire hot due to insufficient chilling Low current capacity Inadequate chilling system Reasonable monetary value Can merely step down the Voltage Why non dry type Transformer? Recommended for Indoors usage Can non defy high temperatures Can non stand really low temperatures Very inexpensive Can merely step down the Voltage. Why non BFP ‘s Transformers? Not design to transport out high tonss Can defy high and lower temporaries Reasonable monetary value 5. Why non Pole mounted Transformer Does non suit for the intent, Can defy temperature alterations Not available on shelf Used FOR Domestic intent The result of the analysis shows that Option figure 1 is the lone 1 that is applicable for the Majuba Power Station, this is due to the fact that option figure 1 meets all the specific demands and is ever available on shelves. 2.2 QUIZ 2 House Criteria and Requirements Weight House A House Bacillus HOUSE C Bedroom size 10 3 3 4 Shoping Centre 5 1 3 1 Security 5 2 2 1 Garage 5 3 1 1 Crime Rate 5 2 1 2 Police station 5 1 1 3 Gardening size 5 2 1 2 Design 5 3 1 1 Vicinity 5 1 1 3 Traffic 10 6 2 2 School 10 2 4 4 Location 10 3 1 6 Family demand 5 2 2 1 Affordability ( Price ) 10 4 4 2 Near to work 5 3 1 1 Entire 100 38 28 34 Table 1 Decision doing Tool The determination doing tool used above on Table 1 used a standard to measure the best house that one can purchase, Given the demand that the house should run into or follow with, the determination was taken that House A is the best house to purchase. 2.3 QUIZ 3 Plethora of Literature Fig 1 Brain Power Fig 1 above Tells about the Memory ability Factor: System believing illustrate that no affair how much work burden you might hold the encephalon power aid to execute you responsibilities and ensures that all work acquire don, it besides tells us that a proper planning plays a immense function on all state of affairs one could come across with, It hence of import for the individual to acquire sufficient cognition and preparation to accomplish the best consequences. Fig 2 PROJECT MANAGEMENT Fig 2 above Tells us on Project direction state of affairs planning besides plays a immense function and if planning is non done one will confront troubles when it comes to Project Execution, Project Management is worthless when the quality is compromised, Fig 2 Teach us the for the undertaking to executed, The strategic program is where we find the AIM of the system the ‘whole ‘ should be taken into consideration, intending that the must be a continues betterment and a strategic planning and Management should be pattern for a Undertaking to be a successful one. FIG 3 INFORMATION SYSTEM BEHAVIOR Fig 3 above Tells us the information system in administration, Organisation should guarantee that its values are know by all employees and should populate by them, Trust within the administration leads to a good squad work with one end of accomplishing the best for the company. Policies and process should organize portion of day-to-day activities and should be communicated to all employees in an administration, 2.3.1 LETTER TO THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS Title: System Thinking Application in Organisation Background Many companies have failed themselves and some resulted in shuting down, No one of all time take clip to understand why this happens, Research shows that system thought does non be and Management does thing the manner they think. Most administrations do non run as a ‘whole ‘ but instead as a ‘part ‘ of the system. System Thinking Application Fig 1, 2 and 3 above illustrate Different application of the system thought, each and every figure will lend to the turning and development of the administration, Employees and Management will derive a batch of trust and apprehension of each other, to better our methods of alteration, hence, we need to understand more about what really governs people ‘s behavior. You read "The Approach Of Systems Thinking Commerce Essay" in category "Essay examples" When no alteration occurs, it is the form of behavior that remains unchanged. Making the right thing means we have to larn how to see an administration as a system and understand the deductions of that position for what it means to pull off. Recommendation and Decision System believing when applied decently can alter the mentality of employees and it is recommended that all employees to be exposed to system thought and the construction should be such that employees must experience that they are portion of the administration, It is recommended that preparation should be provided to the employees to acquire the good consequences of system thought, Good communicating construction to be in topographic point and all informed of it, In decision, A learning administration produces a good consequences and increases working public presentation which leads to an addition in production. It is the Board determination to accept the application of System believing in this administration taking into history the benefit and the impact the system believing will hold in the administration. 2.4 QUIZ 4 What is Fractal – a fractal is any object or something or signifier created from repeated forms apparent at many degrees of graduated table. In my administration, I have noticed that a fractal quality take topographic point when we do the pre occupation brief [ where safety and occupation planning is discussed before the occupation can really get down ] and the Safety of people is ever emphasised and repeated, this is done to accomplish one end which is to hold zero first assistance and zero Loss clip hurts. Another Changes that I need to Implement is to accomplish Fractal quality is Cardinal regulations, These regulations are the regulations that can non be broken by anyone and should anyone interrupt anyone of the regulations, there will be a formal disciplinary for that person which might consequences to a serious misconduct These five cardinal regulations are as follows: Open, Isolates, Earth and/or bond and safety trial before touch Hook up at highs Be sober Have Permit to work I therefore see it necessary to warn co-workers each twenty-four hours about these five cardinal regulations. 2.4 QUIZ 5 1. Angstrom 2. – 4B 3. Bacillus 4. Angstrom 5. Angstrom 6. Bacillus 7. – 4C 2.5 QUIZ 6 Undertaking Name: Renovation of Turbine Valves This is a undertaking that is presently busy with at my work topographic point Majuba Power Station Unit 4. Background In 2009 it was suspected that unit 4 Turbine Valve are damaged, this came after the machine was in a procedure of closing down after flushing extremum, The Operator who was in charge of the machine did non follow the shut down process and he was erroneously unfastened the control valve and allow H2O to travel through the Turbine, Water should non at any point go to the turbine as this could caused Quenching [ allow H2O to the turbine valves ] . The effects of Turbine extinction is a categorized as a catastrophe which cause the Rotors on the Turbine to flex and finally do the Turbine to vibrate, and since last twelvemonth therefore far the quiver has been so high, The ground for non making the fixs last when the incident take topographic point was the fact the system could non let Majuba to take the machine out for Outage due to the system constrains. The machine have been running at a lower burden since last twelvemonth and the hazard to run the machine with amendss was identified and all extenuation was put in topographic point to avoid farther amendss to the Turbine. Scope of work: Shut down the Machine Force cool the machine for 36hrs Erect Scaffolding [ Sub contract ] Remove lagging and cladding [ Sub contract ] Remove Turbine 4 Turbine valves Remove Turbine Two Rotors Send both Valves and Rotors for fixs at Alstom [ Sub contract ] Inspect and replace bearing no 1 and 10 if found damaged Collect both Valves and Rotors from Alstom Put back Turbine rotors Put back Turbine Valves Replace lagging and facing Dismantle Scaffolding [ Sub contract ] Perform Turbine tests, take reading and analyse [ Sub contract ] Start up the Machine The chief Contractor is Rotek Engineering Sub contractor no 1 Kaefer [ Scaffolding ] Sub contractor no 2 Alstom Power Services Entire costs for this Undertaking is R 13,000,000.00 Chaos Theory application This Undertaking was scheduled to get down on the 16th September and complete on the 29th October 2010, The chief Contractor is Rotek Engineering Sub contractor no 1 Kaefer [ Scaffolding ] Sub contractor no 2 Alstom Power Services After go toing The Da Vinci Institute classes on System Management, the tool used on the stuff was checked against my current undertakings as follows: So far Alstom has indicated that will be little alteration on the undertaking continuance as the range on the Valves and Rotors has increased after they have stripped and inspected the Vales and Rotors and that has a direct influence on the entire budget allocated, Rotek contractor together with Alstom revised the saloon chart every bit good as the WBS [ Non additive paradigm adopted ] which so showed a late completion day of the month of the 5th November 2010, as Eskom we do non desire to lose clip on the undertaking we so called up a particular meeting with the chief Contractor [ Rotek ] , The contractor was requested to direct a citation for an extra range submitted after the review was done and Eskom besides instructed the Rotek to acquire more resources and besides cite on that extra resources ( we applied control ) , The entire costs now has been increased to R 13A 850,000.00 which was non approved budget ab initio. We so as a squad called up a meeting with everyone involved, all were encouraged to work safe and put focal point on the work, the coverage / communicating construction [ D channel applied ] and organogram besides discussed with the squad and all understood the set up. Team members were motivated and were promised a braai every bit good as Game gift verifiers of R 150, 00 each should the undertaking be completed on clip. Everybody was asked to experience free on the occupation and to describe any insecure act and the suggestion box was placed on the floor for anyone with jobs on the undertaking itself including HR and Salary issues. In this undertaking non much alteration was applied to the solutions of mending the Valves and the Rotors as the recommendation was given by the industry and no other determination could be made as this constituents are non manufactured locally and no 1 knows much within South Africa. Presently the squad and everybody involved are happy and this is conformed by the committedness and dedication noted on the squad, this has led to a decrease in continuance of the undertaking by two yearss. The decrease in continuance has helped in costs decrease on the undertaking. Therefore Chaos theory in Project Management has taught us the followers: If a good planning and Execution is non done decently, that undertaking is a If there is no proper communicating in a squad, that is a formula for a catastrophe in a undertaking [ D channel plays a immense function ] The undertaking environment should be contributing for the squad to larn in order to maximize the usage of alteration. 3.1 ANALYSE ELEMENT FROM STAKEHOLDER ‘S VIEWPONT 3.1.1 Power Generation and Supply at Eskom This is an component that I will be discoursing and analysing, besides to place Operating, Transaction every bit good as Contextual Environment. A Operating Environment Structure: It is good defined and all employees and employer understand and follow the agreed construction. Culture: Like any other organisation, Culture diverseness is still a challenge as people do things otherwise and besides think otherwise. Competences: Competent people are largely on Majuba side although there is still some work to be done and less competent people are more on Contractors working under Majuba. Resources: In footings of resources, most of the work is outsourced and that is where the most resources are in employed compared to the resources Majuba. B Transactional Environment Communities: Not applicable. Regulators: Eskom is regulated by NERSA in footings of Electricity and in footings Gender equity it is for regulated by authorities Act and ain internal processs. Stockholders: Government and World Bank Creditors: Customers: Eskom clients are chiefly all house clasp, Municipalities, Mines, and Hospitals every bit good outside states like Zimbabwe. Suppliers: Eskom providers are chiefly the coal mines, section of H2O personal businesss, gas Industries, letter paper companies every bit good Computer companies. Rivals: Presently Eskom does non hold rivals in footings of Electrical power coevals, but other companies generate their ain Electricity for ain usage e.g. Sasol. Trade association: Not applicable Unions / employees: Eskom employees have three brotherhoods stand foring them and they are NUM, NUMSA every bit good Solidarity. C. Contextual Environment Political Forces: Political engagement does be but chiefly take portion in higher Management degree, The ground being that the Eskom Chief Executive Officer is appointed by the Minister of Public Enterprise and Energy. Economic Forces: Economic forces has negatively impacted Eskom in the past two old ages and that was due to the universe recession and the factor is the new physique Eskom Power Stations which requires a batch of one million millions to be completed and that has besides put Eskom into fiscal crisis at this phase. Ecological Forces: Not applicable and have no impact on Eskom concern and operation. Technological Forces, Technology keeps on turning and coming each and every twelvemonth and Eskom is ever out at that place seeking for new thoughts and information of running the concern efficaciously and expeditiously without compromising its nucleus concern. Socio-cultural Forces: Peoples have different attitude, beliefs, imposts and life style every bit good as civilization, Eskom does hold these different people but they are no influence or whatsoever towards Eskom employees as they have established a wont of working as a squad. 3.2 FORMULATE THE MESS A ; DESCRIBE THE CURRENT REALITY 3.2.1 System Analysis Component System Environment Structure: The histrions involved here are the Employees, Trade brotherhoods, Employer, clients and providers, their involvement is to guarantee Generate Electricity and administer it to its clients. Eskom has a immense influence and impact on Electricity supply to its clients and besides has influence on its employees Members: Eskom Executive Committee Board members and employees on all Eskom divisions. Major constituents are all the electricity bring forthing workss and Coal and Gasses. Their relationship is that bring forthing workss requires Coal and Gasses to bring forth Electrical energy. Eskom has a dedicated staff that ensures there is continues supply of Electrical energy to Eskom clients, Currently Eskom stockholders are its employees every bit good as the Government, There are three trade brotherhoods viz. NUM, NUMSA every bit good as SOLIDARITY, Eskom chief clients are all Electricity users [ domestic usage ] , Mines, Hospitals and other neighbouring states, Current providers are Coal mines, gasses provider, Government appoints Eskom CEO and ensures that all authorities act are obeyed and followed by all Employers and Eskom is presently regulates by NERSA. Function: Eskom produced Electrical Energy for all its clients including neighbouring states like Zimbabwe, Electrical energy is produced for all family and domestic usage, Hospitals and companies every bit good as the mines that requires electrical energy to run their concerns, Daily meeting are held where the production demands are discussed and actions are taken by relevant persons. The chief merchandises is Electrical energy and the markets all Eskom clients, Presently Eskom does non hold major rivals, Eskom has entered the markets in a immense manner that its is registered with JSE every bit good as universe market, Eskom is presently making good in the Market as there are one other company that compete with Eskom and non much challenge is experience by Eskom, As antecedently discussed, Eskom has no rivals and hence no strength exist PROCESS ( Knowledge ) : Electrical energy is produced where by the Boiler filled with Tubes is heated through the Boiler Tubes and the steam is formed which the converted to a dry steam and transported at a high force per unit area which so turn the Turbine which in bend turned the Generator. The initiation processes takes topographic point in the generator and the magnetic field are produced and Electrical energy generated. Then the generated power transferred to the Generator transformer which the measure up the Voltage from 22A 000Volts to 400kv, this 400kv is the sent to the grid and so national control controls the power distribution to all system webs and Eskom clients Eskom seeks new engineering each and every twenty-four hours for its nucleus concern of bring forthing Electricity at sensible monetary value and that is ever available, although Eskom do hold competent people and accomplishments but there is spread that needs to be closed due to the fact that people with so right accomplishments are go forthing the administration and there is skill keeping or development program in topographic point, Throughput procedure: Eskom produces a capacity of 4100 MW of Electricity per twenty-four hours, provided the full machines are on burden bring forthing electricity. Organizational procedure: Eskom have processs and Policies in topographic point which aid to run the concern efficaciously e.g. finance, engineering, quality, human resources, and selling are of import procedure considerations. Minimum demand – To be able to bring forth Electrical energy that is ever available at a sensible monetary value, Benchmaker: The best participants in the administration are all the Eskom employees and the employer who makes it possible produces this Electricity, Cost of selling is 150 Per Megawatt, Cost of Production is about R38m per Megawatt, Cost of developing about R12m, Cost of rank ( operating expenses ) is about R50m. 3.2.2 OBSTRUCTION ANALYSIS BSTRUCTION ANALYSIS Function Structure Procedure Power Daily meeting are held where the production demands are discussed and actioned to relevant persons. Beginning of Power is at Management degrees and they are responsible for continues running of the Plant. Policies and process are clear and good defined, all people involved are cognizant of the procedure to be followed. Cognition Everyone is clear and knows precisely of what needs to be done as all are allocated with work for that peculiar twenty-four hours. All employees are measured utilizing the in agreement cardinal public presentation Indexs and the wages being the Performance Appraisal Bonuses. The system is in topographic point for all the divergence and control in conformity with NEC, feedback is required on specific agreed day of the months. Wealth In footings of Market viability, Eskom is still safe as the Market response rather good since there are no rivals ; The demand increases at a fast rate. Eskom beginning of money is on both Eskom ego net income every bit good as World bank where most of the loans are granted to Eskom. Although some the Generating Machines are acquiring old, The Machines still operates efficaciously and the demand is forecast 48 hrs upfront at the control Centre situated in Germiston and planned consequently. Beauty Eskom vision of the coveted hereafter province that ‘Together constructing the powerbase for sustainable growing and development and to supply Southern Africa with dependable cost effectual Power ‘ At the present minute Eskom does non hold any insecurities and disaffection, South Africa chiefly dependant on Eskom to provide Electricity and the support is continues. There is a good Integration on Eskom ‘s stakeholders, The distinction exist when Government is loath to O.K. requested financess and when clients has to pay additions on Electricity Valuess The Main hazards that Eskom faces are deficit of skilled forces, Insufficient power bring forthing machines to run into the increasing demand every bit good as support of the new undertakings Eskom value its employees and handle everyone with regard they deserve, The Group consists of different people coming from different background and Culture and everyone respects other chap ‘s civilization. Conflict Management processs are in topographic point to cover with any struggle arising. Depending on each instance virtue but largely a disciplinary commission plays a function. 3.2.3 REFERENCE PROJECTION There is a batch of a thing that could go on should at that place be no alteration the manner administration operates, the undermentioned explains: The company will non turn and no invention. The company will non copy with new Technologies Skilled people will non acquire challenge and will stop up populating the administration 3.2.4 REFERENCE SCENARIOS Organisation would destruct itself by non using alteration in the current manner they operates their concerns, Administration that do non guarantee its employees are acquiring developed and are given opportunity to research. Administration destroys itself if it non a learning administration and when power is on certain single merely Administration that does non hold Policies and processs would be destructing its hereafter. 3.3 DESCRIBE THE AS IT SHOULD STATE FOR AREA – Probe Here we discuss the Solutions that can assist to better the system by discoursing the followers: 3.3.1 Where system in an administration should be more opened? In my administration I believe the system should be more opened on the followers: Open in communicating construction from the high Management to a lower category people in the administration. Open in Information sharing within the administration even to the people who do non hold entree to e-mail and GroupWise. Open in people ‘s development Open in giving people a platform for Innovation. Open in Procedures and Policies. 3.3.2 Where the system in an administration should be closed? Close in High degree Management determination Near in Individual wages. 3.3.3 Where the system in an administration should be connected? Different sections working in silos should be connected Different division should be connected. 3.3.4 Where Boundaries should be? When people non following processs. When people are interrupting the jurisprudence and the regulations. Applied when there is a no work a no wage should use. 3.3.5 Where is the form in an administration? Time order, everybody to maintain on start working clip. Follow processs on all work. Treat everybody with regard. 3.4 CASUAL LOOP DIAGRAM 3.4.1 Casual Loop Diagram Key Findings The undermentioned points indicate the chief country of concern on the above Casual cringle diagram in Fig 5: It is noted that high population addition electricity demand which in bend reduces the Supply of electricity The current procedure of bring forthing electricity has a negative impact on our environment as it causes pollution to the air. The effects of fouling the may every bit good mine workers where Cola is supplied may consequences to human deaths. It is an obvious instance that in winter season where there is no rainfall, the Eskom administration finds it hard to bring forth Electricity as there is immense deficit of H2O in the dikes and rivers. The more human deaths are experience in the industries is the more our population acquire reduced. It is true Eskom is lending to the Economy of this state because all concerns needs electricity to operates efficaciously Eskom as an administration opens occupation chances and allow people to develop in their callings within Eskom. It is besides noted that when the employees are given a opportunity to get cognition through surveies and research, they become more enlightening and increase that increases their accomplishments. 3.4.2 Recommendation from the Casual Loop Diagram The safety of people is a precedence and no production loss or net income can warrant the safety of people, it is hence recommended that the Companies should be more watchful and put systems in topographic point to guarantee that workers come to work safe and unrecorded work safe. It is recommended that administrations should hold a program in topographic point to develop its employees, this will convey good consequences in a long tally and will lend to the high net income of the administration as the employees will be more skilled and knowing which helps in increasing the company production. 3.5 FRACTAL LIKE REQUIREMENT Refer to Quiz no 4 on page 10 3.6 BOARD MEMORANDUM Refer to Quiz no 3 on page 6 3.7 Decision In decision, whether we consider systems believing largely a new position and a set of tools, it has a power and a possible that one time we have been introduced, are difficult to defy. The more you learn about this challenging field, the more you will desire to cognize. In administrations, System Thinking has taught us that all sections should work together and incorporate to accomplish the best consequences, It has besides taught that although we need to cover with a alteration in our environment and learn to near as the ‘whole ‘ instead that as ‘parts ‘ of the system. How to cite The Approach Of Systems Thinking Commerce Essay, Essay examples

Sunday, May 3, 2020

Poety free essay sample

Time I Mean it is by a band called Mayday Parade. The song is on their Anywhere but Here album that was released in 2009. This specific song has a lot of similarities including poetic devices, denotation and connotation and also musical presentation. Poetic devices are very common in music including the song l Swear this Time I Mean it. The first poetic device noticed in this song is rhyme. Rhyming is when two words sound the same or have the same ending. Rhyming words usually occur at the end of poetic lines.An example from the song would be If luck is on my side tonight my clumsy tongue will make it right. The rhyming words are tonight and right. The singer is saying if Hess lucky tonight hell fix his his mistakes and make them right. The singer uses rhyme to pull the song together. The next poetic device noticed in the song is personification. We will write a custom essay sample on Poety or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page Personification is when an inhuman object is giving a human characteristic. An example from the song is Oh Florida please be still tonight. That is personification because Florida cant move in the first place.The last poetic device in the song is repetition. Repetition occurs in the song when he sings And Ill sing a melody and Sleeping softly while I sing the singer repeats the word sing throughout the song. Every word has denotation and connotation. Denotation is the dictionary definition of a word. Connotation is an idea or meaning suggested by or associated with a word or thing. An example from the song is the word serene. Denotation of the word serene Is Unaffected by disturbance; calm and unruffled. A connotation of the word serene loud be calm, tranquil or also peaceful.I know the connotation of the word serene because once knew the definition I knew other words with the same meaning. Another word from the song Is clumsy. The denotation of clumsy Is awkward In movement or handling things. Connotation for clumsy would be the words awkward or gawky. I know the connotation because awkward Is In the deflation. The last word for denotation and connotation Is overrated The denotation of overrated Is an estimate that Is too high A connotation for the word overrated would be exaggerated.I know the connotation because exaggerated also means to overstate something. Musical presentation Is Important In music because thats how singers express themselves and their songs. The first musical presentation of the songs Is rhythm. Rhythm Is Important In songs because Its the beat of the music playing. Songs usually have the same rhythm throughout a song changing at the chorus. The next musical presentation Is the Instruments they use to create the song. While listening to the song you can hear the guitar, the bass and the drums ND also they use a microphone to tone and make their voices louder.

Friday, March 27, 2020

50 Out of This World Space Activities

50 Out of This World Space Activities Send your elementary school class over the moon with these  space activities. Here is a list of space-related resources to help blast your students imaginations into outer space: Space Activities The Smithsonian Education site provides a general introduction to the universe.View the atmosphere through Google Earth.NASA offers teachers grades K-6 a variety of space-related activities.View astronomy photographs and browse interactive activities at the HubbleSite.View a space grocery list and have students create their own version.Learn how to construct a space station.Get active and learn how to train like an astronaut.Create a space shuttle scavenger hunt.Write a biography about a former astronomer.Research about extraterrestrial intelligence and have students debate whether other life forms even exist.Read the Top 10 Reasons for Going into Space and have students write a top 10 essay about what they learned about space.Learn about space-related events coming up on the space calendar.View the shuttle countdown site where you can learn how the countdown operates and view live coverage.Get a 3D look of the solar system.Create a timeline of space firsts.Build an air-powered bottl e rocket. Build an edible space shuttle out of peanut butter, celery, and bread.Give an astronomy and/or space quiz.Watch NASA TV.Learn about NASA Acronyms.Read nonfiction space books about NASA space exploration, and the history.Browse pictures of animals in space.Watch age appropriate movies about space.Compare women astronauts with men astronauts.Learn how astronauts go to the bathroom in space (students will sure get a kick out of this one).Watch Apollo videos and have students create a KWL chart.Have students complete an activity book about space.Build a bubbled power rocket.Build a moon habitat.Make moon cookies.Launch a rocket from a spinning planet.Make asteroids students can eat.Place space toys and materials in your learning center for hands-on fun.Go on a field trip to a place like the US Space and Rocket Center.Write a letter to a space scientist asking him space-related questions.Compare Yuri Gagarins space mission with that of Alan Shepard.View the first photograph from space.Vie w a timeline of the first mission to space. View an interactive expedition of the first mission to space.View an interactive recreation of the Apollo space shuttle.Explore a journey into space with this Scholastic interactive game.View solar system trading cards.Make a comet with dry ice, garbage bags, hammer, gloves, ice-cream sticks, sand or dirt, ammonia, and corn syrup.Have students design and build their own spaceship.Print out this space quiz and test your students knowledge.Brainstorm what living on the moon would be like. Have students design and build their own colony.Find out when a spacecraft will be flying over your city.Find out what it took to have a man be able to walk on the moon.Learn about gravity and the fundamentalists of physics.A kids website dedicated to teaching students about the wonders of space. Additional Space Resources For further information on space choose a few of these kid-friendly websites to visit: Astronomy for Kids:  Learn about the moon, planets, asteroids, and comets through interactive games and activities.Space Kids:  View videos, experiments, projects, and more.NASA Kids Club:  Space-related fun and games for kids.ESA Kids:  Interactive site to learn about the universe and life in space.Cosmos 4 Kids:  Astronomy basics and science of the stars.

Friday, March 6, 2020

Fire Prevention Essays

Fire Prevention Essays Fire Prevention Essay Fire Prevention Essay Essay Topic: To Build a Fire Fire Prevention Name Institution Date : Fire Prevention For purposes of this study, I chose to analyze the article ‘Fire Safety Handbook for Apartment Managers’ by the Seattle Fire Dept. This article attempts to outline fire safety and prevention measures regarding fire tragedies that occur in apartments and residential settings. According to the article, Fires in residential buildings are most prevalent because the dense nature of these buildings that allow heat, smoke, and fire. Fire is common accident and in most cases cannot be anticipated. In case this tragedy strikes, response should involve fast action and quick decisions (Seattle Fire Department, 2010). Being prepared in such cases can save lives and property. For purposes of preventing fires, the Seattle and Washington state laws designed regulations for fire safety on multi-residential housing. This publication was established to endow property managers with the necessary knowledge regarding fire tragedies and their prevention. The publication by the Seattle and Washington state provides information about fire safety and prevention for staff and tenants. The publication also highlights recommendations for the development of procedures in case of a fire emergency. In a year, the fire department in Seattle responds to about 150 fire emergencies that occur in multi-residential houses. The article endeavored to investigate the reports in most of these fires, establish the common causes of these fires, and design relevant prevention measures. Upon analyzing this article, I was able to establish that it is in agreement with the material I study in my course. According to my study course, I am able to understand that cooking accidents are the main cause of fires in the United States. According to the article, Seattle in particular registers more fires resulting from cooking than any other cause. More than a third of fire accidents in multi-residential buildings are caused by cooking errors. In this case, most of the fires resulted from unattended food in the kitchen. Prevention of these fires should then involve more responsibility when cooking and proper maintenance of cooking apparatus (Seattle Fire Department, 2010). Additionally, the article outlined heating apparatus as the second factor that causes most fire accidents in America. The winter months in particular record the most usage of heating devices. While the use of these devices is imminent, the article stresses due care when using them and ensuring that they are safe to use. Additionally, the article report also outlined smoking as another major cause for fires. These fires as mostly caused by leaving cigarette unattended or near chairs and sofas (Slater and Smith, 2009). However, other than highlighting responsibility as a factor for preventing fires caused by cigarettes and heating devices, I think that the article should have included smoke alarms as a means preventing these fires. These devices would help detect fires in their early stage and hence stop them before they spread. Conclusively, fires occurring in residential buildings are the most common in the United States registering a remarkable 52 percent. The article by the Seattle Fire Department endeavors to investigate residential building fires, and in particular, those in Seattle. My thoughts on this article and its relation to my course study maintain that the most effective way preventing fires involves identifying and removing fire hazards. Some of these preventive measures involve exercising more responsibility when performing household activities such as cooking and using heating devices. Ultimately, I was able to establish that the article complements my course study apart from majoring only in household fires. References Seattle Fire Department. (2010). Fire Safety Handbook for Apartment Managers. Seattle: Scholastic Press. Slater, T., Smith, J. (2009). Fire prevention. New York, NY: Scholastic.

Wednesday, February 19, 2020

Education Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words - 4

Education - Essay Example These days, students are treated with kid gloves in an effort to make them feel better about themselves and not harm their young psyche. However, by misleading students into believing that they can accomplish anything they want to and that simply trying is good enough, we are raising a generation of prideful students who think that they do not need to try harder to be better than the next guy in order to succeed in life. They have become a â€Å"prideful† generation without really having anything to take pride in. That is the argument of Thomas Benton in his article â€Å"the Seven Deadly Sins of Students†, and that is the main focus of this argumentative paper. I will also focus on how the Peter Thiel Fellowship helps to make matters worse for our prideful students because it encourages them to forgo the regular college route in exchange for instant gratification of their ideas. Peter Thiel, the man after whom the grant is named is described as; â€Å"... the Silicon Valley investor who believes more young people should be chasing breakthrough technologies instead of wasting their time and money in college. â€Å" (Miller, Claire â€Å"Drop Out , Start Up†). ... Out of this pride -- nurtured by the purveyors of unearned self-esteem, personal grievance, dumbed-down courses, and inflated grades (often in the guise of liberality) -- the opportunity to earn an education is squandered by prideful students who can make a potential heaven seem like hell. The students of today take pride in being able to â€Å"achieve† without really doing the work. Although there is some good to be said of positive encouragement, the fact that this type of encouragement has taken over the educational system leaves one wondering as to the direction that these students will actually have in their lives. After all, there is nothing worse than being rewarded for mediocrity. Let us also not forget that long known saying â€Å"A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.† It is that little knowledge that these students possess that people such as Peter Thiel exploit for all the wrong reasons. Thiel believes that students should not waste their time languishing in college and spending college money that their parents most likely do not have when they can actually be pursuing their dreams and working on turning it into a reality. That is the precise reason that he created the Thiel Fellowship Grant. He caters to the need for instant gratification of the prideful students, forgetting the fact that these are still young people barely out of their teens and without the proper training nor guidance to succeed in their adult endeavors in their current status. That ripening of their minds and ability to manage their lives and professional careers comes with the completion of a college degree. However, Claire Miller (Miller, Claire â€Å"Drop Out , Start Up†) explains that these kids do not understand what they